Ready for nuclear energy?

The International Atomic Energy Agency reports that as of July 2009 there were 52 countries interested in building their first nuclear power plant. A new paper by Jessica Jewell of the Energy Policy Research Group at CEU characterizes and evaluates these "Newcomer Countries" in terms of their capacity and imperatives to develop nuclear power as well as the associated risks and uncertainties. It quantifies several factors historically associated with the development of national nuclear energy programs and then benchmarks the Newcomers against these data. The capacity indicators include the size of the economy, the income per capita, government effectiveness, the size of the national grid and the presence of international electricity grid interconnections. The imperatives are evaluated with reference to the growth rate in electricity consumption and security of fuel supply for electricity production. We also evaluate risks and uncertainties related to political instability. We identify 10 Newcomer Countries which are the most likely to deploy nuclear energy, 10 Countries where nuclear energy is uncertain or risky due to their political instability, 14 Countries where pursuing nuclear energy is possible with international joint implementation or exceptionally strong government support, and 18 countries where the development of nuclear power is unlikely. Recommendations for international nuclear energy policies and further research are presented.